The impending 6G era is poised to unleash a spectrum crunch of unprecedented scale for the mobile industry, prompting a strong warning from the GSMA. Their recent report, “Vision 2040: Spectrum for the future of mobile connectivity,” highlights that 6G networks will require three times the spectrum currently allocated to mobile use. Failure to meet this demand could result in congested connections and hindered digital economies, emphasizing the urgent need for governments to proactively plan for this future.
Envision a future where your metaverse avatar streams seamlessly and your autonomous vehicle effortlessly navigates traffic, all powered by 6G technology. This promising vision, however, relies heavily on a finite resource: radio spectrum. The GSMA report vividly illustrates this data-intensive future, projecting over five billion 6G connections by 2040, which will represent half of all mobile connections globally.
The projected data demands are truly staggering. Global mobile traffic is forecasted to explode, potentially reaching 3,900 exabytes per month by 2040 in a high-growth scenario. This equates to an astounding 360GB of data consumption per month for each mobile connection. This surge isn’t solely driven by streaming videos; it encompasses the integration of extended reality (XR), integrated sensing, and autonomous systems into our daily lives. Importantly, the GSMA anticipates that 4G and 5G will remain vital, supporting billions of connections.
The GSMA report emphasizes that countries must act decisively to secure sufficient spectrum for 6G. Failure to do so risks slower speeds, increased congestion, and diminished economic opportunities in the 2030s. Without proactive government planning, consumers may experience subpar connectivity, businesses could struggle to adopt emerging technologies, and national digital economies might lose their competitive edge in the global transition to 6G.
The core challenge lies in the availability of mid-band spectrum. The GSMA study concludes that, on average, each country will need 2-3 GHz of mid-band spectrum by 2035-2040 to satisfy projected capacity demands, and some countries may require even more. However, the current average allocation is less than 1 GHz, highlighting the need to find an additional 1-3 GHz. This requires strategic planning and potentially re-allocating existing spectrum.
The report identifies several key candidate mid-bands for future consideration:
- 3.8–4.2 GHz
- 4.4–4.99 GHz
- Upper 6 GHz (6.425–7.125 GHz)
- 7.125–8.4 GHz
Each of these bands is currently utilized by various incumbents, ranging from satellite communications to military applications. Re-allocation will necessitate careful negotiations and long-term planning. John Giusti, the GSMA’s chief regulatory officer, stated, “This study shows that the 6G era will require three times more mid-band spectrum than is available today… Satisfying these spectrum requirements will support robust and sustainable connectivity, deliver digital ambitions and help economies grow.”
WRC-27: A Pivotal Spectrum Showdown
The World Radiocommunication Conference 2027 (WRC-27) will serve as a crucial platform for these discussions. Governments will negotiate the allocation of future mobile bands, and the decisions made will profoundly impact the 6G landscape for decades to come. The GSMA underscores the urgency of these negotiations, cautioning that densely populated urban areas, which account for 83% of mobile traffic, could face severe consequences if planning is delayed.
Several companies are already taking steps to prepare for 6G. Verizon has launched a 6G innovation forum to take early steps in shaping the next generation of AI-enabled mobile. NTT Docomo also claims a successful outdoor 6G AI-driven interface trial, resulting in throughput improving by ‘up to 100%’ under real-world outdoor conditions. Nvidia and Nokia are also pioneering an AI platform for 6G comms and Ericsson, Nokia, and Fraunhofer HHI are teaming up to drive the 6G era video coding standard.
This situation has prompted the GSMA to call for governments to prioritize affordable mobile spectrum. As the European 5G landscape is on a rollercoaster, European Wi-Fi firms are making their call for 6GHz spectrum.
The path to 6G is paved with technological advancements, but it also presents significant political and economic challenges. Securing the necessary spectrum will require foresight, collaboration, and a willingness to make difficult decisions. The future of connectivity, and the digital economies it will foster, depends on it.
