Bernstein Predicts Crypto Stocks Bottom Before Q1 Results

Bernstein analysts suggest that the recent selloff in crypto-linked equities presents an appealing entry point for investors interested in tokenization and on-chain finance. The firm has maintained “Outperform” ratings for Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure.

While reaffirming their positive outlook, Bernstein lowered the price target for Coinbase (COIN) to $330 from $440, for Robinhood (HOOD) to $130 from $160, and for Figure (FIGR) to $67 from $72. These adjustments reflect anticipated near-term challenges and potentially weak first-quarter earnings.

Crypto-linked stocks showed signs of stabilization in premarket trading Monday, with COIN up about 2.5%, HOOD gaining roughly 2%, and FIGR increasing around 1.7%. This modest rebound signals early recovery in digital assets.

Bernstein believes the opportunity lies in the broader shift toward tokenized financial infrastructure. This includes stablecoins, tokenized credit, and on-chain prediction markets, all expected to gain traction in the coming years. The recent market downturn has created a more attractive entry point into these themes, according to the brokerage.

Bernstein views Figure as a clear tokenization play, projecting its consumer-loan marketplace volumes to reach $12.8 billion this year and $16.5 billion by 2027. This growth is anticipated as the company expands beyond home equity lines into areas like small business and auto lending.

Robinhood’s future is linked to newer revenue streams, with Bernstein forecasting prediction markets to evolve into a $240 billion industry. Event contracts could contribute about 17% of the company’s trading revenue and roughly 10% of total revenue next year. Growth in margin lending, subscriptions, and deposits is also expected to boost earnings alongside any recovery in crypto activity.

For Coinbase, Bernstein anticipates a shift away from spot trading toward derivatives and stablecoin-related income. The firm estimates derivatives could account for up to 14% of trading revenue by 2027. Stablecoin fees, especially those linked to Circle (USDC), may contribute about 19% of total revenue next year, despite recent market volatility.

Bernstein highlighted that Circle captures the bulk of reserve yield, while platforms like Coinbase distribute the product. This means stablecoin income can keep compounding even if regulators tighten how much yield can be passed on to end users.

Bernstein’s analysis suggests a potential bottoming out for crypto stocks before Q1 results are released. The firm maintains a bullish outlook on key players like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure, emphasizing the long-term potential of tokenization and on-chain finance despite near-term pressures.

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