A $42 Billion Loss Behind a $2 Trillion Ask
The concern starts with a mismatch in the numbers. A leaked prospectus revealed that Anthropic generated $4.6 billion in revenue in 2025 while reporting a $42 billion net loss over the same period.
- 2025 revenue: $4.6 billion
- 2025 net loss: $42 billion
- Targeted valuation: $2 trillion on a planned Nasdaq listing
- New Constructs estimate: $150 billion
The research firm New Constructs labeled the offering the most ridiculous IPO
of 2026.
The Loop Nigel Green Describes
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, says brilliant technology and sound valuation are two different things, and that the price paid is what decides investor outcomes. He points to a demand loop among the tech giants. Anthropic has committed $518 billion to AI infrastructure, including up to $84.5 billion for computing capacity from SpaceX through 2029.
SpaceX, in turn, uses only Nvidia hardware in its AI data centers. Nvidia is also a major investor in the AI ecosystem and holds a stake in SpaceX.
Nvidia money goes into SpaceX. SpaceX borrows to buy Nvidia chips,
Green explained. Anthropic rents the computing power, and SpaceX books the rent as AI revenue.
Green argues this inflates Anthropic’s public market valuation, since part of its growth is generated by these same internal arrangements. He acknowledges that genuine AI demand exists, but questions how much of it is the same dollars doing laps.
From the Bank of England to the Telecom Bust
The Bank of England has voiced similar concerns. It warned that rising indebtedness, opacity, and circular arrangements in AI financing could amplify losses if market expectations are not met.
Green draws a parallel to the late 1990s telecom boom, when equipment makers financed their customers’ purchases and inflated sales in the process. The cycle eventually collapsed. Investors still lost fortunes,
he said, because the money propping up the boom circulated until it stopped. At $2 trillion, the circle has to spin faster forever. Circles rarely manage it,
Green concluded.
Hashlytics Take
Two things deserve separating here. The valuation gap is real arithmetic: $2 trillion is roughly 435 times 2025 revenue, and more than 13 times the $150 billion New Constructs estimate. The circularity charge is still an argument, not a finding. It comes from a wealth manager and rests on a leaked prospectus that has not been independently confirmed. The question that settles it is how much of Anthropic’s revenue comes from customers outside this web of investors and suppliers. Until the final filing breaks that out, treat the “dollars doing laps” line as a sharp hypothesis, and the $2 trillion figure as a price someone still has to agree to pay.
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