Anthropic’s Revenue Explosion Outpaces OpenAI’s Valuation Growth
According to the Financial Times, Anthropic’s annualized revenue jumped from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $30 billion by the end of March, a gain driven largely by demand for its coding tools. This acceleration has triggered skepticism among some of OpenAI’s own investors regarding the company’s $852 billion valuation.
The disparity between the two companies’ market positions is stark. Anthropic’s $380 billion valuation now appears competitive relative to OpenAI’s inflated valuation, despite being less than half the size on paper. One investor backing both companies told the FT that justifying OpenAI’s funding round required assuming an IPO valuation of $1.2 trillion or higher, making Anthropic’s current valuation look like a relative bargain by comparison.
Secondary Markets Signal Shifting Investor Sentiment
The private markets are telling a revealing story. Demand for Anthropic shares has grown nearly insatiable, while OpenAI shares are trading at a discount in secondary trading. This divergence reflects broader concerns about OpenAI’s ability to justify its valuation through revenue growth alone.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar pushed back against criticism, citing the company’s $122 billion raise as the largest private fundraising in history and evidence of continued investor confidence. However, skeptics remain unconvinced.
Historical Parallels Raise Red Flags for OpenAI
Jai Das, president of investment firm Sapphire Ventures, drew a striking historical comparison. He characterized OpenAI as the Netscape of AI,
referencing the once-dominant browser that was overtaken by Microsoft and eventually absorbed by AOL. The analogy suggests that market leadership in AI is far from guaranteed and that Anthropic’s rapid ascent could represent a genuine shift in competitive dynamics.
Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, has faced this dynamic before. During his tenure leading Y Combinator, aggressive valuation inflation left some portfolio companies financially stranded while others proved worth their valuations many times over. The question now is whether OpenAI falls into the first or second category.
What Happens Next for the AI Giants
OpenAI’s reorientation toward enterprise customers represents a strategic pivot in response to Anthropic’s momentum. Whether this shift can justify the company’s valuation remains the defining question for investors watching the AI sector’s evolution. The gap between projected valuations and realized revenue growth has narrowed considerably in Anthropic’s favor, and the market is taking notice.
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